Montreal, Winnipeg Byelections to Test Liberal, NDP Support

Voters are heading to the polls today for federal byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg. The two contests will serve as a test for the Liberals and the NDP who held the ridings previously, to determine their ability to retain those seats.
The Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun is considered a critical test for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government following the party’s unexpected June defeat by the Conservatives in a once-reliable Toronto stronghold. Tory candidate Don Stewart won with 42 percent of the vote in Toronto-St. Paul’s, a riding that had been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years.
Winnipeg’s byelection in Elmwood—Transcona, meanwhile, is as much a test for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as the Montreal riding is for Trudeau. The party has won 10 of the 11 general election votes in the riding since 1988, making Elmwood—Transcona an NDP stronghold.
The race in Winnipeg has become a battle between the NDP and the Conservatives, who have surged in popularity in polls across the country.
As more than 78,000 voters head to the polls today, they will have a record 91 candidates to choose from. The ballot, the longest in Canadian federal elections history, is largely made up of candidates affiliated with a group protesting Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system.
Despite the two-column ballot, polling points to a three-way race between Liberal Laura Palestini, Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé, and the NDP’s Craig Sauvé.
A recent poll by Mainstreet Research found that the Bloc’s Sauvé was leading in voter intentions for the riding, with 29.6 percent support. The Liberal’s Palestini was in second place with 24.1 percent, while the NDP’s Sauvé had 23 percent support. The Conservative candidate, Louis Ialenti, trailed with 7.3 percent support.
Today’s vote is the first time in nearly a decade that the Blaikie name will not appear on the ballot. Blaikie has represented Elmwood–Transcona since 2015. Before that, his father, Bill Blaikie, represented the area for three decades beginning in 1979 until his retirement in 2008.
Instead, Leila Dance of the New Democrats will square off against Conservative Colin Reynolds and Liberal Ian MacIntyre.
The NDP recently ended its supply-and-confidence agreement that kept the Liberal minority government in power in exchange for the Liberals passing key NDP-backed legislation such as national dental-care benefits.
Both Poilievre and Singh have travelled to Elmwood–Transcona in recent days to rally support for their candidates.